Olipop is Top 3
A lesson in data visualization
Good morning, hello, I hope you’re well. Thanks for hanging in there as these newsletters get a little less frequent. But this is a good one! I hope! We cover a founder pushing a poorly made graphic to sell his narrative, the viral phone-case-holding-product trend, and even cattle ranching if you read until the end. Let’s get into it.
🥤Olipop Is Now a Top 3 Selling Soda
Or is it? David Lester, Co-founder of Olipop, posted a graphic on Linkedin showing Olipop as in sales at one of the nation’s largest retailers. We don’t know which retailer but commenters speculate it’s Target.
One of my friends is heavily invested in one of Coca-Cola’s bottling companies (read more here to find out which one) and I am an Olipop evangelist so we have a nice rivalry going. He requests Coca-Cola when he visits and I lovingly get him Olipop Vintage Cola instead. Anyway, I sent this graphic to him to show him that Olipop could compete with the big guys because well, I’m their biggest fan and I fell for the click bait. It was pointed out that Coca-Cola, Diet Coke, and Coke Zero are all the same brand and that Olipop’s valuation as of April 2023 was $200M while Coca-Cola’s current valuation is $225B. That makes Olipop 0.08% of Coca-Cola’s valuation. In Ben’s words,
“This is like comparing Heels sales to Nike Air Jordan Sales at a high school prom footwear outlet. The founders are likely burning through cash, and need to hype up the value of the brand ahead of selling the company. One thing investors salivate over is total addressable market (TAM). By “proving” sales are in the same universe as popular soft drinks, MR Laster attempts to position the brand into a TAM that, ultimately, will not materialize.”
I get it, but also think that because Coca-Cola is so huge that breaking down their offering by type (diet, zero, etc.) seems fair. Also, the average Coca-Cola drinker is not realistically going to switch to drinking Olipop. If they are, it’s the Coke Zero drinkers who are watching their sugar intake. And Olipop sales did beat out Coke Zero sales at this retailer which I think there’s no harm in celebrating. Sure, maybe Olipop is a bit overoptimistic with this graphic. Or maybe they’re just salty about the rumors that Coca-Cola is pursuing an acquisition of Poppi.
🍴Brandy Melville is Starting a Cafe Empire
The youth’s favorite clothing brand has three cafes, St. George Cafe in New York and London, as well as Chill Since ‘93 in Los Angeles. Emily Sundberg recently wrote about this in her newsletter Feed Me and it was the first time I had heard about it. Apparently, the pizza is really good since their deep pockets allow them to purchase the best ovens. Most restaurants have thin margins, but since these are part of a larger retail empire, I’m sure there isn’t expectation around turning much of a profit. I wonder if this will become the Nordstrom Cafe of Gen Z.
🤳If You Want to Go Viral Attach Your Product to a Phone Case
A few weeks ago, Haley Bieber posted a selfie with a phone case that held her skincare brand Rhode’s hero product, the peptide lip treatment. And the internet loved it. Monday, I got an email from the low-proof vodka brand Body about a phone case that included a flask which they claim they will make if 200 people claim they want it.
Some brands have responded with their own renditions which hilariously include videos of people scotch-taping their products to their phones. Graza and Cocokind were among some of the first to do it. Side note, as I was writing this, People Brands and Things just drew the same conclusion in their newsletter this morning.
This reminds me of when Away dressed a suitcase up in white briefs and posted a photo of it against the New York Skyline as a spoof on Jeremy Allen White’s viral Calvin Klein photoshoot. Rather than trying to go viral, brands are now just grabbing on to the tails of virality other brands have created.
🍺Coors Steals Market Share From Bud
Molson Coors reported strong Q4 earnings as net sales grew 9.3% in 2023. The company, which makes Coors Lite and Miller Lite, increased marketing spending by 19% as they look to maintain those gains. Looks like the boycotts against Bud Lite, starting April of last year, had a big impact.
🔋Death Water Joins the Powdered Electrolyte Club
The brand that made canned water metal just released Death Dust, a powdered electrolyte mix in three flavors. Hydration powders, especially single serve, have huge margins. They’re much lighter to ship than liquid and price per oz for single serve anything is so much higher since it’s justified by convenience. Which is why I feel like I cheat the system when I buy the little tub of Ultima at Whole Foods.
💧Blume Launched Hydration Powders
Speaking of hydration powders, powdered-beverage brand Blume recently launched a hydration powder targeting gut health. The brand is known for their powdered latte mixes so this isn’t a huge pivot. But rather than package their SuperBelly mixes in bulk bags like their lattes, they also went with single serve packages. It seems to be the main way brands are positioning hydration mixes. It makes sense, you’re less likely to be scooping powder out of a bag while in the locker room than a neat little stick pack.
🚜Investors Are Buying Up Farmland
Investors are betting big on US farmland, expecting its value to soar as the global population grows and natural resources become scarcer. An estimated 400mm acres of farmland is set to change hands in the next decade or so, said Jordan Treakle from the National Family Farm Coalition. “There’s significant concern that these companies are going to be in control of the agricultural land base in this country,” he said. While some see this trend as a smart long-term investment, others worry about the impact on rural communities as large investment groups acquire more farmland. This terrifies me. My maternal grandpa came from a family of cattle ranchers in Eastern Oregon. The family ranch is the oldest in the county and one of the oldest in the state still in the hands of the original family, six generations later. Unfortunately, as land gets passed down ownership can get diluted among siblings and if there’s no one among younger generations wanting to run ranching or farming operations, the family opts to sell. Also, Americans are pretty far removed from the source of their food. Go to your local farmers market! Start buying produce, meat, bread and dairy from local stands! Make relationships with the person running the booth! Ask them about their farm! Train yourself to get a little dopamine hit when you buy your food so you keep going back even when it’s not convenient!
Alright, alright I’m getting off my soap box now. Enjoy this Wednesday.